How to Read AI Doomer Headlines
Three “AI doomer” stories have come out in rapid succession. Let’s look at what they leave out.
1. AI will lie, cheat, and kill to stay alive
2. Jobs are over (again)
3. Phone calls, email, and text channels will be obliterated
Nikita is the head of product at X.
Here’s what they leave out
Item #1
It’s true that in tests, AI did try to take extreme steps to stay online. But not because of an emotional will to live, but because AI is trained on human data. We have a fierce will to live. It’s mimicking our will, and trying to complete an objective (to stay online) using its training data. Which includes tons of stories about deceit, blackmail, and worse.
We haven’t seen this happen in the wild, on its own, yet. And if it’s coming out in testing, where it should, then good. Still time to fix it.
Interesting. A little alarming, yes. But the tweet assumes no one cares. That’s not the case.
Item #2
Kudos to the Financial Times for using careful, measured language:
… most of the tasks accountants, lawyers and other professionals currently undertake will be fully automated by AI within the next 12 to 18 months.
But good heavens, the content on the quote tweets.
And on and on.
There’s a vested interest in hyperbole, of course. And even if the tech is ready in a year, the marketplace (and certainly government agencies) won’t be. The future will arrive unevenly, and will have to fight through the muck of bureaucracy and habit and entrenchment.
Lawyers and accountants will still be here in a year. (But they better be using AI tools.)
Item #3
Nikita’s IQ is probably twice mine1. But the missing piece here is assuming only one side will use AI to scale2—only the scumbags will use bots to overwhelm our most trusted comms channels. Spam is not new. Gmail and iMessage still work, even with annoyances.
But the other side can use AI to scale countermeasures, also. And that side has a vested financial interest in keeping the services we rely on viable.
I remember when spam started running wild. I worked at an ISP. It was a giant pain in the ass. We made changes: IP blacklists, content filtering, rate limiting, spam folders.
The white hats built tools to stem the tide. I bet we will again.
Look for what isn’t said
There’s nothing more interesting—and generating more fear—than AI. As you read these stories, think through how they are positioned, why they are positioned that way, and most importantly, what they don’t say at all.
Huge disruption is coming. Some of it is here now. But we don’t know how fast nor what awaits us on the other side3. And steadiness will be valuable in any outcome.
Yes, 2 x 0 is still 0. I’ll self-inflict that barb so you don’t have to send it.
Or that there’s simply nothing the good guys can do.
No, not Terminator bots. C’mon now.